Future Flows: river flow changes by season

Winter changes

Changes in winter flow show a mixed pattern in England and Wales with drier, similar or wetter signals within -20% to +40% change – one scenario up to 60% in a small region. In contrast flows in Scotland show a small increase or decrease, although this is still mainly within +/- 20% with changes in the east reaching up to 40%.

Changes in winter (DJF) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes
Above: Changes in winter (DJF) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes.

Maps of monthly changes for individual winter months are also provided below.

Changes in December flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in December flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in January flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in January flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in February flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in February flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Spring changes

Changes in spring flow show more of the Future Flows Hydrology scenarios are drier for most of the UK with decreases of up to 40%. However for 3 scenarios, central England has increased flows up to 60%.

Changes in spring (MAM) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes
Above: Changes in spring (MAM) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Maps of monthly changes for individual spring months are also provided below.

Changes in March flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in March flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in April flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in April flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in May flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in May flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Summer changes

Changes in summer flow predominantly show decreases in runoff through Great Britain but range from +20% to -80%. The largest percentage decreases are mainly in the north and west of Great Britain, although the range in these areas between scenarios can be large (0 to -80%).

Changes in summer (JJA) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in summer (JJA) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Maps of monthly changes for individual summer months are also provided below.

Changes in June flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in June flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in July flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in July flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in August flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in August flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Autumn changes

Changes in autumn river flow show a mixed pattern with a full range of percentage changes (+60% to -80%) across Great Britain. Most scenarios indicate decreases in flows, especially in the south and east (up to -80%) whilst in the west and north changes can be small. One scenario shows no change or increase in runoff across Great Britain.

Changes in autumn (SON) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in autumn (SON) flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Maps of monthly changes for individual autumn months are also provided below.

Changes in September flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in September flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in October flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in October flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Changes in November flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Above: Changes in November flow for the 2050s obtained from CERF driven by Future Flows Climate changes

Related links

Future Flows: National Changes in River Flows overview

Future Flows maps and data

Future Flows and Groundwater Levels project home