Professional summary
Research Interests
Adam is a member of the Hydrological Forecasting group at UKCEH in Wallingford where he provides statistical expertise. His current role involves extreme value analysis with a focus on estimation of long-return flood events, improving methods through the application of spatial data to better describe dependence between simultaneous extreme events, now and in the future. He develops methods for estimating flood frequency and magnitude statistics, for applications in flood risk and defence management. Specifically, he is involved in updating FEH methods, making use of local and historic data through generalised regression models. He also researches methods regarding estimating non-stationary flood regimes, particularly those trends linked to climate change. Adam has co-supervised an undergraduate project on historical data (NERC GW4+ REP) and advised an MSc student during dissertation on comparisons of extreme value distributions.
Adam’s PhD in mathematics and statistics included experience in Monte Carlo methods (SMC, MCMC, ABC) and stochastic epidemiology. He also developed SMC methods for conditional processes on reducible state spaces. He also has teaching experience at undergraduate level for both statisticians and non-mathematical students. Adam’s computing skills include R, Python, Office, and Latex, along with a working knowledge of C++, Fortran.
Brief CV
Probability and Statistics: extreme value analysis, conditional distributions (QSDs, Yaglom limits) knowledge of Monte Carlo methods: ABC, SMC, MCMC
Hydrology: Statistical Flood Frequency Analysis
Stochastic epidemiology: compartmental models
R, basic Python and C++
Qualifications
2008-2016: PhD in Statistics , MSc in Maths & Stats, and MMATH from University of Warwick
- Statistical epidemic modelling, with particular interest in agent-based models regarding transient immunity to influenza.
- Researching properties of limiting distributions concerning conditioning on non-extinction of epidemics.
- Development of SMC methods for conditional distributions.
2008-2016: PhD in Statistics , MSc in Maths & Stats, and MMATH from University of Warwick
- Statistical epidemic modelling, with particular interest in agent-based models regarding transient immunity to influenza.
- Researching properties of limiting distributions concerning conditioning on non-extinction of epidemics.
- Development of SMC methods for conditional distributions.
Work experience
2017-Present: Hydrological Statistician in Hydro-Climate Risks Section.
- Focus on statistical flood frequency estimation with interest in spatial and temporal trends.
- Part of FEH development team.
- Part of NRFA Data Validation team.
2022
-
Present
Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection: ROBIN
2022
-
Present
Flood Hydrology Improvements Programme (FHIP) ‒ Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in the hydrometric data that supports flood hydrology. EA
2019
-
2020
UK Climate Resilience Programme – Climate risk indicators: developing indicators of climate risk using UKCP18 to support risk assessments and enhance resilience. Met Office/UKRI.
2019
-
2022
UK Climate Resilience Programme – (AquaCAT) Risk Estimates using techniques from catastrophe modelling: UK Floods. Met Office/UKRI
2019
-
2020
Interim National Guidance on Non-Stationary Fluvial Flood Frequency Estimation. Environment Agency.
2017
-
2021
LTS-ODA SUNRISE - Sustainable Use of Natural Resources to Improve Human Health and Support Economic Development. NERC (NE/R000131/1).
2017
-
Present
LTS-S UKSCaPE: UK Status Change and Projections of the Environment. NERC (NE/R016429/1). Virtual Survey Lab task undertaken.
2017
-
2018
Estimating flood peaks and hydrographs for small catchments. DEFRA/Environment Agency (SC090031).
2017
-
2018
LTS-S FAIR Monitoring and Modelling. NERC.
2017
-
2018
CWI-UCL Water “Climate” Services to inform Food and Water Security in India. UCL.
2017-Present: Hydrological Statistician in Hydro-Climate Risks Section.
- Focus on statistical flood frequency estimation with interest in spatial and temporal trends.
- Part of FEH development team.
- Part of NRFA Data Validation team.
|
2022 |
- |
Present |
Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection: ROBIN |
|
2022 |
- |
Present |
Flood Hydrology Improvements Programme (FHIP) ‒ Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in the hydrometric data that supports flood hydrology. EA |
|
2019 |
- |
2020 |
UK Climate Resilience Programme – Climate risk indicators: developing indicators of climate risk using UKCP18 to support risk assessments and enhance resilience. Met Office/UKRI. |
|
2019 |
- |
2022 |
UK Climate Resilience Programme – (AquaCAT) Risk Estimates using techniques from catastrophe modelling: UK Floods. Met Office/UKRI |
|
2019 |
- |
2020 |
Interim National Guidance on Non-Stationary Fluvial Flood Frequency Estimation. Environment Agency. |
|
2017 |
- |
2021 |
LTS-ODA SUNRISE - Sustainable Use of Natural Resources to Improve Human Health and Support Economic Development. NERC (NE/R000131/1). |
|
2017 |
- |
Present |
LTS-S UKSCaPE: UK Status Change and Projections of the Environment. NERC (NE/R016429/1). Virtual Survey Lab task undertaken. |
|
2017 |
- |
2018 |
Estimating flood peaks and hydrographs for small catchments. DEFRA/Environment Agency (SC090031). |
|
2017 |
- |
2018 |
LTS-S FAIR Monitoring and Modelling. NERC. |
|
2017 |
- |
2018 |
CWI-UCL Water “Climate” Services to inform Food and Water Security in India. UCL. |
Panels, committees and memberships
2017-Present: British Hydrological Society
2017-Present: Royal Statistical Society.
2017-Present: British Hydrological Society
2017-Present: Royal Statistical Society.
Work-related training
ODA Project Management Course (Oct 20-Jan 21)
Three 2-day courses on various approaches to project management: Theory of Change, Log frames, and Monitoring and Evaluation.
Grant Writing Course (January 2019)
One-day course on writing effective "case for support" documents for grant applications (academic council grants).
Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins (August 2018)
Week-long course at TU Wien regarding estimation of runoff and other riverflow statistics at sites without observations. Included hydrological explanation and statistical methodologies.
Introduction to Python (October 2017)
Included use of numpy and pandas modules for statistical analysis. Ran by Royal Statistical Society.
Introduction to Hydrology (March 2017)
Overview of hydrological flood frequency estimation through application of the FEH Web service, WINFAP 4, and ReFH2. Ran by Wallingford HydroSolutions.
Hydrometry Training Course (May 2017)
Broad overview of hydrological instrumentation, streamflow measurement, the construction and weirs and other streamflow controls. Some discussion of measurement and calculation uncertainty.
ODA Project Management Course (Oct 20-Jan 21)
Three 2-day courses on various approaches to project management: Theory of Change, Log frames, and Monitoring and Evaluation.
Grant Writing Course (January 2019)
One-day course on writing effective "case for support" documents for grant applications (academic council grants).
Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins (August 2018)
Week-long course at TU Wien regarding estimation of runoff and other riverflow statistics at sites without observations. Included hydrological explanation and statistical methodologies.
Introduction to Python (October 2017)
Included use of numpy and pandas modules for statistical analysis. Ran by Royal Statistical Society.
Introduction to Hydrology (March 2017)
Overview of hydrological flood frequency estimation through application of the FEH Web service, WINFAP 4, and ReFH2. Ran by Wallingford HydroSolutions.
Hydrometry Training Course (May 2017)
Broad overview of hydrological instrumentation, streamflow measurement, the construction and weirs and other streamflow controls. Some discussion of measurement and calculation uncertainty.