UKCEH scientists have contributed to a new report, published on 2 September by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) which states that global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights.
The report, Limiting Overshoot, acknowledges it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals as set out in the Paris Agreement where leaders pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report identifies an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway as the best remaining option to minimise the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and try to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible.
In a message on the report, UN Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres said, “We are set to breach the 1.5-degree limit within the next few years. We must make the overshoot as small and short as possible – limiting how high temperatures rise and how long they remain above 1.5. That demands an overshoot of ambition: Accelerating the phaseout of fossil fuels and the renewables revolution; Slashing methane pollution; And protecting land, forest and oceans.”
This pathway would minimise peak temperature rise through immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the road to net-zero, and bring down temperatures through long-term net-negative emissions, with carefully governed Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) – the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means – an essential part of the mix.
Adaption is no longer a secondary concern
At the same time, following the pathway would involve adaptation actions that reduce vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change on societies, communities and economies – although there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimised. The report stresses such a pathway would reduce risks and impacts, make adaptation less difficult and expensive, and increase the chances of lowering temperatures.
UKCEH scientists Professor Paula Harrison and Dr Anita Lazurko are contributing authors to chapter 4 of the report on ‘Adapting to overshoot realities in the context of development’.
Professor Harrison said: “This report sends a clear message: while every effort must be made to reduce emissions, adaptation can no longer be treated as a secondary concern. As the world enters a period of climate overshoot, incremental adjustments will not be enough to deal with escalating risks, adaptation limits and cascading impacts. We need more systemic and transformational approaches that can help societies navigate uncertainty, reduce vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of both people and nature. The decisions we make now will determine whether communities and ecosystems can cope with the challenges ahead.”
Read Limiting Overshoot here.
Read the UNEP press release here.
Watch the UNEP video about the report.