Our scientists have contributed a diverse range of expertise – on wildfires, droughts, biodiversity, land management and carbon-rich habitats – to the latest independent expert advice to the UK Government on the risks from climate change.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published the fourth independent assessment of its kind. ‘A Well-Adapted UK’ puts forward a comprehensive package of solutions for government, business and the wider public to address the growing impacts of climate change affecting every aspect of life.
As a member of the CCC’s Adaptation Committee, representing land, nature and farming, Professor Chris Evans of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology is one of the authors of the Well Adapted UK report.
The accompanying Technical Report, the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment, was produced by a consortium of experts led by the Met Office. This report brings together the latest scientific evidence on the range of climate risks facing the UK, the level of urgency required to address them and the research gaps. It will be used by policymakers, practitioners, researchers and industry to inform adaptation planning and investment decisions in coming years.
Several UKCEH scientists contributed to the State of the Climate chapter of the Technical Report. Land surface modeller Dr Douglas Kelley provided his expertise in modelling and analysis for the section on wildfires while hydro-climate modeller Dr Magdalena Szczykulska and hydroclimatologist Dr Wilson Chan worked on the drought section.
UKCEH ecologist Professor James Bullock was one of the lead authors of the Land, Food & Nature chapter.
Annette Burden and Jenny Williamson were authors on the chapter’s section on ‘Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration’.
UKCEH Science Director Kathryn Brown, previously Head of Adaptation at the CCC, said: “The UK is already feeling the effects of climate change, with more extreme weather posing increasing risks to lives, livelihoods, properties, food production and biodiversity.
“These new reports reflect the breadth of the UKCEH science that is providing the robust evidence needed to enable governments, farmers, water companies, businesses and conservationists to take action to adapt to these growing threats.”
Summaries of reports' findings
A Well-Adapted UK says the British way of life under threat from heat, flooding and drought, and states that the cost of inaction would be far greater than acting now.
The CCC’s proposals require investment of around £11 billion a year, split broadly evenly between public and private funding. Without adaptation, the cost to public welfare is predicted to rise to between 1-5% of UK GDP by 2050 under 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, compared to pre-industrial times – this is equivalent to £60 billion-£260 billion per year.
The Technical Report says global warming has accelerated since the third assessment in 2022 and climate change is already having significant negative impacts across the UK. The severity of further impacts will vary between nations. Around two thirds of the assessed risks have a High or Very High magnitude by the 2030s.
The report includes evidence that climate change is changing wildfire and drought patterns and outlined what could happen in future, based on modelling.
It also highlights that further research and action are needed across terrestrial, marine and coastal ecosystems to protect biodiversity. Extreme weather events are increasingly threatening key habitats such as peatlands, saltmarsh and woodlands, which are important carbon stores.
The report also says climate change poses a major and growing threat to UK food security. Risks to crop, livestock and fishery production due to extreme weather is expected to significantly escalate during the second half of this century, particularly in southern England.
Available online, the Technical Report and A Well-Adapted UK form the independent advice for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) which is due to be presented by the UK Government to Parliament by January 2027.
