Dr Chris Huntingford, Climate Modeller

Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Maclean Building
Benson Lane
Crowmarsh Gifford
Wallingford
Oxfordshire
OX10 8BB
Tel: +44 (0)1491 838800
Fax: +44 (0)1491 692424
E-mail: Dr Chris Huntingford

Just published

No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns. Chris Huntingford, Philip D Jones, Valerie N Livinia, Timothy M Lenton, Peter M Cox. Nature (2013). doi: 10.1038/nature12310


Climate projection: Refining global warming projections. Chris Huntingford. Nature Climate Change (2013). doi: 10.1038/nclimate1964


Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change. Chris Huntingford, Przemyslaw Zelazowski, David Galbraith, Lina M Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Rosie Fisher, Mark Lomas, Anthony P Walker, Chris D Jones, Ben B B Booth, Yadvinder Malhi, Debbie Hemming, Gillian Kay, Peter Good, Simon L Lewis, Oliver L Phillips, Owen K Atkin, Jon Lloyd, Emanuel Gloor, Joana Zaragoza-Castells, Patrick Meir, Richard Betts, Phil P Harris, Carlos Nobre, Jose Marengo and Peter M Cox. Nature Geoscience (2013). doi: 10.1038/NGEO1741


Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability. Peter M Cox, David Pearson, Ben B Booth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris Huntingford, Chris D Jones & Catherine M Luke. Nature (2013). doi: 10.1038/nature11882

Equivalence of greenhouse-gas emissions for peak temperature limits. Stephen M Smith, Jason A Lowe, Niel H A Bowerman, Laila K Gohar, Chris Huntingford & Myles R Allen. Nature Climate Change (2012). doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1496

The link between a global 2°C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond. Chris Huntingford, Jason A. Lowe, Laila K. Gohar, Niel H.A. Bowerman, Myles R. Allen, Sarah C.B. Raper and Stephen M. Smith. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (2012) 014039 (8pp). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014039. This article, a copy of which is available from the publisher and here in PDF, may be accessed in accordance with these usage rights.

High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes. Ben Booth, Chris D Jones, Mat Collins, Ian J Totterdell, Peter M Cox, Stephen Sitch, Chris Huntingford, Richard A Betts, Glen R Harris and Jon Lloyd. Environ. Res Lett. 7 (2012) 024002 (8pp). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002. This article, a copy of which is available from the publisher and here in PDF, may be accessed in accordance with these usage rights.

Model complexity versus ensemble size: allocating resources for climate prediction. Christopher A. T. Ferro, Tim E. Jupp, F. Hugo Lambert, Chris Huntingford and Peter M. Cox. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2012 370, 1087-1099. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0307

Research

Thank you for visiting my web page. My publications are listed below by topic (clickable links). Open access papers (and where, occasionally, we have bought the copyright) have documents for direct download. Others may be available from NERC Open Research Archive (NORA). Links go to journal web pages or PDFs.

Global carbon cycle and mitigation policy

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics. D.B. Clark, L.M. Mercado, S.Sitch, C.D. Jones, N.Gedney, M.J. Best, M. Pryor, G.G. Rooney, R.L.H. Essery, E. Blyth, O. Boucher, R.J. Harding, C. Huntingford, and P.M. Cox. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722 (2011). doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011

Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services.
C. Huntingford, P. M. Cox, L. M. Mercado, S. Sitch, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher and N. Gedney. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 2026-2037. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0314. (Please note: CEH owns the copyright, and this paper is free to download.)

Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy. Bowerman, N.H.A., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A. and Allen, M.R. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Volume 369, Pages 45-66 (2010). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0288

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Le Quere, C., Raupach, M.R., Canadell, J.G. et al. Source: Nature Geoscience, Volume 2, Issue 12, Pages 831-836 (Dec 2009) doi:10.1038/ngeo689

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J, Huntingford, C.., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M. and Meinschausen, N. Source: Nature 458, 1163-1166 (30 Apr 2009) doi:10.1038/nature08019

Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread. Huntingford, C.., Lowe, J.A., Booth, B.B.B. et al. Source: Tellus Series B - Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Volume  61, Issue 2, Pages 355-360 (Apr 2009). doi: 0.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00414.x. (Open Access - click here.)

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Lowe, J.A., Huntingford, C., Raper, S.C.B., Jones, C.D., Liddicoat, S.K., Gohar, L.K. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 014012 (2009). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012. See also this CEH News Report.

What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy? House, J.I., Huntingford, C., Knorr, W. et al. Source: Environmental Research Letters, Volume 3, Article Number 044002 (2008). http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/3/4/044002

"Overshoot" scenarios and climate change.
Huntingford, C., Lowe, J. Source: Science, Volume 316, Issue 5826, Pages 829-829, (May, 2007).

Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints. Jones, C.D., Cox, P.M., Huntingford, C. Source: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Volume 58, Issue 5, Pages 603-613, (Nov 2006). doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00215.x. (Open Access – click here.)

Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model. Huntingford, C., Hargreaves, J.C., Lenton, T.M. et al. Source: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 7, Issue 2, Pages 213-219, (Apr 2003).

Global terrestrial carbon storage and uncertainties in its temperature sensitivity examined with a simple model. Lenton, T.M., Huntingford, C. Source: Global Change Biology, Volume 9, Issue 10, Pages 1333-1352 (Oct 2003).

Uncertainty in climate-carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Jones, C.D., Cox, P., Huntingford, C. Source: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Volume 55, Issue 2, Pages 642-648 (Apr 2003). ( Open Access - click here.)

Contrasting responses of a simple terrestrial ecosystem model to global change. Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M, Lenton, T.M. Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 134, Issue 1, Pages 41-58 (Sep 2000).

A canopy conductance and photosynthesis model for use in a GCM land surface scheme. Cox, P.M., Huntingford, C., Harding, R.J. Source: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 213, Issue 1-4, Pages 79-94 (Dec 1998).

Detection and attribution of climate change

Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming. Stott, P.A., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D. et al. Source: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Volume 60, Issue 1, Pages 76-81 (Feb 2008). doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00329.x. (Open Access - click here.)

Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Huntingford, C., Stott, P.A., Allen, M.R. et al. Source: Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 5, (Mar 2006). doi: 10.1029/2005GL024831

Climate-induced changes in runoff

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide. Betts, R.A., Boucher, O., Collins, M. et al. Source: Nature, Volume 448, Issue 7157, Pages 1037-U5 (Aug 2007). doi:10.1038/nature06045

Continental runoff - A quality-controlled global runoff data set - Reply. Gedney, N., Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A. et al. Source: Nature, Volume 444, Issue 7120, Pages E14-E15 (Dec 2006). doi: 10.1038/nature05481

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Gedney, N., Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A. et al. Source: Nature, Volume 439, Issue 7078, Pages 835-838 (Feb 2006). doi: 10.1038/nature04504

Climate-induced changes to rainfall patterns including extremes

On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change simulations. Buonomo, E., Jones, R., Huntingford, C. et al. Source: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 133, Issue 622, Pages 65-81 (Jan 2007). doi: 10.1002/qj.13

Evaluation of the rainfall component of a weather generator for climate impact studies. Elshamy, M.E., Wheater, H.S., Gedney, N. et al. Source: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 326, Issue 1-4, Pages 1-24 (Jul 2006). doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.017

Climate change and hydrology: next steps for climate models. Huntingford, C., Gash, J., Giacomello, A.M. Source: Hydrological Processes, Volume 20, Issue 9, Pages 2085-2087 (Jun 2006). doi: 10.1002/hyp.6208

Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled models. Lambert, F.H., Gillett, N.P., Stone, D.A. et al. Source: Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 18, (Sep 2005). doi: 10.1029/2005GL023654

Regional climate-model predictions of extreme rainfall for a changing climate. Huntingford, C., Jones, R.G., Prudhomme, C. et al. Source: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 129, Issue 590, Pages 1607-1621 (Apr 2003). doi: 10.1256/qj.02.97

Amazon rainforest

Quantifying environmental drivers of future tropical forest extent. Good, Peter, Jones, Chris, Lowe, Jason, Betts, Richard, Booth, Ben, Huntingford, Chris. Journal of Climate, Volume 24, Issue , Pages 1337 -1349 (March 2011). doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3865.1

Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests. Zelazowski, P., Mahli, Y., Huntingford, C., Sitch, S. and Fisher, J.B. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Volume 369, Pages 137-160 (2011). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0238

Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change. Galbraith, D., Levy, P.E., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Cox, P., Williams, M. and Meir, P. Source: New Phytologist, Volume 187, Issue 3, Pages 647-665, (2010).

Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Malhi, Y., Aragao L.E.O.C., Galbraith, D., Huntingford, C., Fisher, R., Zelazowski, P., Sitch, S., McSweeney, C. and Meir, P. Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 106, Issue 49 (Dec 2009).

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature. Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M. Source: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, Volume 363, Issue 1498, Pages 1753-1759 (May 2008). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.0037

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon “dieback”. Huntingford , C., Fisher, R.A., Mercado, L. et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, Volume 363, Issue 1498, Pages 1857-1864 (2008). doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0028

Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution. Cox, P.M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., et al. Source: Nature, Volume 453, Issue 7192, Pages 212-U7 (May 2008). doi:10.1038/nature06960

Preface. Gash, J.H.C., Marengo, J.A., Huntingford, C. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume  78, Issue 1-3, Pages 3-3 (Jun 2004). doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0040-0

Calibration of a land-surface model using data from primary forest sites in Amazonia. Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., Gash, J.H.C. et al. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 78, Issue 1-3, Pages 27-45 (Jun 2004). doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0042-y

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Collins, M. et al. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 78, Issue 1-3, Pages 137-156, (Jun 2004). doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4

The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Betts, R.A, COX, P.M., Collins, M. et al. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 78, Issue 1-3, Pages 157-175 (Jun 2004). doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y

Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Huntingford, C., Harris, P.P., Gedney, N., et al. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 78, Issue 1-3, Pages 177-185 (Jun 2004).doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0051-x

Amazonian climate: results and future research. Gash, J.H.C., Huntingford, C., Marengo, J.A. et al. Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 78, Issue 1-3, Pages 187-193 (Jun 2004).
doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0052-9

Effect of soil moisture on canopy conductance of Amazonian rainforest. Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M. et al. Source: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 122, Issue 3-4, Pages 215-227 (Apr 2004). doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2003.09.006

Climate impacts, food security, “pattern-scaling” and IMOGEN modelling system

IMOGEN: an intermediate complexity model to evaluate terrestrial impacts of a changing climate. C. Huntingford, B. B. B. Booth, S. Sitch, N. Gedney, J. A. Lowe, S. K. Liddicoat, L. M. Mercado, M. J. Best, G. P.Weedon, R. A. Fisher, M. R. Lomas, P. Good, P. Zelazowski, A. C. Everitt, A. C. Spessa, and C. D. Jones. Geoscientific Model Development. Volume 3, Pages 679-687 (2010). doi:10.5194/gmd-3-679-2010

Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity. Huntingford, C., Lambert, F.H., Gash, J.H.C. et al. Source: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, Volume 360, Issue 1463, Pages 1999-2009 (Nov 2005). doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1748

An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations. Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M. Source: Climate Dynamics, Volume 16, Issue 8, Pages 575-586 (Aug 2000).

General ecological, diffuse light-fertilisation, N-cycle and “DGVMs”

Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. Fisher, R., McDowell, N., Purves, D., Moorcroft, P., Sitch, S., Cox, P., Huntingford, C., Meir, P. and Woodward, F.I. Source: New Phytologist, Volume 187, Issue 3, Pages 666-681 (2010).

Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: A mechanistic, globally applicable model of plant nitrogen uptake, retranslocation, and fixation. Fisher, J.B., Sitch, S., Malhi, Y., Fisher, R.A., Huntingford, C. and Tan, S.Y. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1014, (2010).

Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Mercado, L. M., Bellouin, N., Sitch, S. et al. Source: Nature, Volume 458, Issue 7241 (Apr 2009). doi:10.1038/nature07949

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N. et al. Source: Global Change Biology, Volume 14, Issue 9, Pages 2015-2039 (Sep 2008). doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x

Improving the representation of radiation interception and photosynthesis for climate model applications. Mercado, L.M., Huntingford, C., Gash, J.H.C. et al. Source: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorological, Volume 59, Issue 3, Pages 553-565 (Jul 2007). doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2007.00256.x. (Open Access - click here.)

Ozone damage to ecosystems

Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink. Sitch, S., Cox, P.M., Collins, W.J. et al. Source: Nature, Volume 448, Issue 7155, Pages 791-U4 (Aug 2007). doi: 10.1038/nature06059

Global methane cycle

Climate feedback from wetland methane emissions. Gedney, N., Cox, P.M., Huntingford, C. Source: Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 20, (Oct 2004). doi:10.1029/2004GL020919

Land-atmosphere feedbacks

The behaviour of a mixed-layer model of the convective boundary layer coupled to a big leaf model of surface energy partitioning. Huntingford, C., Monteith, J.L. Source: Boundary Layer Meteorology, Volume 88, Issue 1, Pages 87-101 (Jul 1998).

The  effect of orography on evaporation. Huntingford, C., Blyth, E.M., Wood, N. et al. Source: Boundary Layer Meteorology, Volume 86, Issue 3, Pages 487-504 (Mar 1998).

Biocrops and geo-engineering

Hughes, J.K., Lloyd, A.J., Huntingford, C. et al. The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO2 atmospheric concentrations. Source: Global Change Biology Bioenergy, Volume 2, Issue 2, Pages 79-88 (Apr 2010).

Northern-latitude issues

Improved description of soil hydraulic and thermal properties of arctic peatland for use in a GCM. Hall, R.L., Huntingford, C., Harding, R.J. et al. Source: Hydrological Processes, Volume 17, Issue 13, Pages 2611-2628 (Sep 2003). doi:10.1002/hyp.1265

Other climate change issues

Climate change: Seeking balance in media reports. Huntingford, C., Fowler, D. Source: Environmental Research Letters, Volume 3, Issue 2, (Apr-Jun 2008). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/021001

Impact of climate change on health: what is required of climate modellers? Huntingford, C., Hemming, D., Gash, J.H.C. et al. Source: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Volume 101, Issue 2, Pages 97-103 (Feb 2007). doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.11.001

Climate equity for all. Author(s): Huntingford, C., Gash, J. Source: Science, Volume 309, Issue 5742, Pages 1789-1789 (Sep 2005). doi:10.1126/science.1115898

Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes. Elliott, J.A., Thackeray, S.J., Huntingford, C. et al. Source: Freshwater Biology, Volume 50, Issue 8, Pages 1404-1411 (Aug2005). doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2005.01409.x

Detailed biome and crop modelling including agro-forestry

Dual versus single source models for estimating surface temperature of African savannah. Huntingford, C., Verhoef, A., Stewart, J. Source: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 4, Issue 1, Pages 185-191 (Mar 2000).

Modelling long-term transpiration measurements from grassland in southern England. Harding, R.J., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M. Source: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 100, Issue 4, Pages 309-322 (Feb 2005).

An argument for the use of two-layer SVAT schemes to simulate terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes. Huntingford, C., Hall, R.L., Verhoef, A. Source: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Volume 2, Issue 2-3, Pages 299-302 (Jun-Sep 1998).

Use of statistical and neural network techniques to detect how stomatal conductance responds to changes in the local environment. Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M. Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 97, Issue 3, Pages 217-246 (Apr 1997).

A note on the similarity groups of the Penman-Monteith Big Leaf Model. Huntingford, C. Source: Boundary Layer Meteorology, Volume 79, Issue 3, Pages 307-312 (May 1996).

An intercomparison of single and dual-source vegetation-atmosphere transfer models applied to transpiration from Sahelian savannah (Volume 74, pg 397, 1995). Huntingford, C., Allen, S.J., Harding, R.J. Source: Boundary Layer Meteorology, Volume 77, Issue 1, Pages 101-101 (Jan 1996).

An intercomparison of single and dual-source vegetation-atmosphere transfer models applied to transpiration from Sahelian savanna. Huntingford, C., Allen, S.J., Harding, R.J. Source: Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Volume 74, Issue 4, Pages 397-418 (Jun 1995).

Non-Dimensionalisation of the Penman-Monteith model. Huntingford, C. Source: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 170, Issue 1-4, Pages 215-232 (Aug 1995).

Earlier publications

An exact solution to the one-phase zero-surface-tension Hele-Shaw free-boundary problem. Huntingford, C. Source: Computers & Mathematics with Applications, Volume 29, Issue 10, Pages 45-50 (May 1995).

A model for nonsmooth free boundaries in Hele-Shaw flows. Hohlov, Y.E., Howison, S.D., Huntingford, C. Et al. Source: Quarterly Journal of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics, Volume  47, Pages 107-128 (Feb 1994).