Case studies - forecasting floods

UKCEH science has underpinned policy relating to the impacts of climate change on flood risk since the mid-1990s. Our scientists have developed new methods for modelling the impact of climate change on peak river flows in eleven regions covering England, Wales and Scotland. We have modelled 50-year return period flood peaks for three time-slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s).

The approach we’ve used explores the sensitivity of a hydrological system to climatic changes by overlaying climate projections on response surfaces. This has the advantage of more readily being able to deal with large ensemble model outputs. Our modelling now enables us to estimate changes to peak river flows at any point on the river network over the next 50 years. This work has enabled the EA, SEPA and NRW all to produce updated guidance on flood management and flood assessment.