EDCAT - Endocrine Disruption in Catchments
EDCAT 2: Exposure Modelling
In order to interpret and evaluate the extent of endocrine disruption in fish, we will need to understand the environment from which they were taken. We will need to ask:
What concentration of steroid hormones were the fish exposed to yesterday, last month, or a year ago and how does this differ between sites on the river? How will this exposure change in the future due to improvements in sewage treatment?
Answers to these questions can only be achieved by combining information on sewage works discharges, river hydrology and fate and behaviour tests in a computer model to predict concentrations along the river. The model must then be tested against actual environmental effluent, water and sediment concentration measurements.
Previous studies conducted in the UK and abroad have contained elements of these fate and behaviour approaches, but they have never been integrated before to provide a comprehensive and tested picture. We will set up both the EXAMS process model software and the LF2000-WQX GIS hydrology model for the River Thames catchment. The EXAMS model will predict the fate and behaviour of the hormones of interest (oestrogens and androgens) in the receiving waters downstream of Swindon sewage works. All aspects of the fate of the hormones will be modelled. The GIS hydrology model LF2000-WQX will be used to predict monthly concentrations of the hormones of interest for every reach in the Thames catchment. This is more detailed information than normally provided by LF2000-WQX as it has only been used to provide mean annual concentrations to date. The loss factors for the hormones in both models will be provided by fate and behaviour studies using real water samples from the catchment.
Objectives
- Calculating steroid oestrogen load to the Thames catchment as a whole;
- Detailed fate and behaviour studies on oestrogens in the River Ray;
- Detailed process modelling of R. Ray;
- Catchment model set up for Upper Thames to generate monthly predictions;
- Use models in forecasting and ‘hind-casting’ exercises.
NB: predictions for androgens, anti-androgens and nonylphenol will be carried out where possible, assuming suitable data emerges.
Project Leaders
 |
 |
 |
| Dr Andrew Johnson | Mr Richard Williams | Ms Monika Jürgens |
