WADES (Wider Assessment of Drought effects on Ecosystem Services)
A test case for application of the OpenMI framework, integrating process and niche models to predict the effects of changing summer rainfall pattern on upland biodiversity and other ecosystem services.
WADES - Wider Assessment of Drought effects on Ecosystem Services
Climate change modellers predict that summers in the UK will become hotter and drier. The WADES project will investigate the impact of these changes on ecosystem services provided by upland regions of the UK, including: maintaining biodiversity; reducing flood frequency and magnitude; reducing pollution of groundwater by nitrates, and buffering the effects of acidifying and eutrophying atmospheric pollutants.
Forecasting the future provision of these services depends on linking models developed in different disciplines, since the relevant processes interact dynamically. WADES will link dynamic models of hydrology, soil and vegetation processes with static niche models of plant and bird occurrence.
Formal methods for managing model documentation and data passing semantics are necessary to link models developed using varying timesteps and to avoid overlaps. Model chains must also be subject to the same rigorous testing as individual models, using measured data to assess accuracy and parsimony. The project will act as a test case for extending the OpenMI model integration framework to new areas of science.
The contributions of input and structural uncertainty to output uncertainty will be explored, by sensitivity analyses and by replacing models within the chain by simplified versions, e.g. linear relationships or constants. Techniques for calibrating and validating linked models will be developed, using information-theoretic criteria to assess the minimum complexity required for accurate predictions. Methods for presenting the set of indicators generated and the sensitivities of the model chain will be assessed.
The project will report on effects of drought on ecosystem services and on the efficacy of the OpenMI framework.
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For enquiries about the WADES project contact: Ed Rowe, CEH at Bangor. |
